Napoli 5–1 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Juventus

E. Elmas 72'

V. Osimhen 65', 14'

A. Rrahmani 55'

K. Kvaratskhelia 39'

Á. Di María 42'

1/13/2023

Serie A · Round 18Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Napoli40%

×Draw27%

Juventus33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Napoli

1.32

Juventus

1.19

Napoli creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 34 away

1.63

creates per match

1.47

0.90

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Napoli

1.63

Juventus

1.47

allows per match

Napoli

0.90

Juventus

1.01

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Napoli+0.05on par

Juventus-0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

67%

Napoli or Juventus

73%

Draw or Juventus

60%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

18%

Juventus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

73%

Napoli 2+ goals

38%

Napoli 3+ goals

15%

Juventus 1+ goals

70%

Juventus 2+ goals

33%

Juventus 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

54%

Juventus (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.90 · 38 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.63 + Juventus defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.32

Juventus attack 1.47 + Napoli defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Napoli scores more

40%

level

27%

Juventus scores more

33%

Napoli at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

K. Kvaratskhelia

Napoli · F

9.0

Match Events

14'

V. Osimhen

39'

K. Kvaratskhelia↳ V. Osimhen

42'

Á. Di María↳ A. Milik

44'

Danilo

46'

E. Elmas← M. Politano

55'

A. Rrahmani↳ K. Kvaratskhelia

56'

M. Kean← A. Milik

56'

L. Paredes← M. Locatelli

65'

V. Osimhen↳ K. Kvaratskhelia

70'

M. Olivera← Mário Rui

72'

E. Elmas↳ G. Di Lorenzo

73'

S. Iling-Junior← F. Chiesa

73'

F. Miretti← Á. Di María

79'

G. Raspadori← V. Osimhen

79'

T. Ndombélé← P. Zieliński

83'

M. Soulé← A. Rabiot

89'

H. Lozano← K. Kvaratskhelia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliJuventus

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots11

2Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots11

10On Target2

2Off Target4

2Blocked5

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

566Total Passes364

500Accurate Passes297

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0