Napoli 1–0 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

V. Osimhen 74' (pen)

5/7/2023

Serie A · Round 34Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Napoli50%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Napoli

1.56

Fiorentina

1.00

Napoli creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

1.63

creates per match

1.10

0.90

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Napoli

1.63

Fiorentina

1.10

allows per match

Napoli

0.90

Fiorentina

1.49

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.05on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

76%

Napoli or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

50%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

26%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

79%

Napoli 2+ goals

46%

Napoli 3+ goals

21%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

63%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

26%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

67%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.90 · 38 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.63 + Fiorentina defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fiorentina attack 1.10 + Napoli defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Napoli scores more

50%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

24%

Napoli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

95

P. Gollini

Napoli · G

7.7

Match Events

45'

K. Kvaratskhelia← H. Lozano

46'

P. Zieliński← G. Raspadori

46'

S. Lobotka← D. Demme

46'

L. Venuti← Dodô

66'

G. Castrovilli← G. Bonaventura

66'

R. Mandragora← A. Duncan

74'

V. OsimhenPenalty

76'

R. Saponara← R. Sottil

76'

C. Kouamé← S. Amrabat

78'

G. Simeone← V. Osimhen

84'

A. Zerbin← E. Elmas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliFiorentina

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots15

1.96Expected Goals (xG)1.14

0Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target3

6Off Target6

1Blocked6

8Inside Box13

2Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

423Total Passes467

356Accurate Passes399

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Offsides3