Napoli 3–0 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bologna

L. Insigne 62' (pen), 41' (pen)

Fabián Ruiz 18'

10/28/2021

Serie A · Round 10Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Napoli46%

×Draw27%

Bologna26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.96

Napoli

1.37

Bologna

0.96

Napoli creates 43% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

1.61

creates per match

1.02

0.90

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Napoli

1.61

Bologna

1.02

allows per match

Napoli

0.90

Bologna

1.13

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Napoli+0.08on par

Bologna+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

74%

Napoli or Bologna

73%

Draw or Bologna

54%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

22%

Bologna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

75%

Napoli 2+ goals

40%

Napoli 3+ goals

16%

Bologna 1+ goals

62%

Bologna 2+ goals

25%

Bologna 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

64%

Bologna (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.61 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bologna attack 1.02 + Napoli defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Napoli scores more

46%

level

27%

Bologna scores more

26%

Napoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

L. Insigne

Napoli · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

Fabián Ruiz↳ E. Elmas

32'

André Zambo Anguissa

38'

Lorenzo InsignePenalty awarded

40'

Gary Medel

41'

L. InsignePenalty

62'

A. Skov Olsen← I. Mbaye

62'

L. InsignePenalty

65'

P. Zieliński← L. Insigne

66'

M. Politano← H. Lozano

75'

D. Demme← A. Zambo Anguissa

75'

D. Mertens← E. Elmas

75'

N. Sansone← E. Vignato

75'

L. Binks← N. Domínguez

81'

S. van Hooijdonk← M. Barrow

81'

M. Dijks← A. Hickey

87'

F. Ghoulam← Mário Rui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliBologna

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots8

4Corners2

20Fouls5

Shots

18Total Shots8

6On Target1

9Off Target5

3Blocked2

12Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

690Total Passes360

641Accurate Passes301

93%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1