Napoli 3–1 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bologna

L. Insigne 76', 8'

V. Osimhen 65'

R. Soriano 73'

3/7/2021

Serie A · Round 26Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Napoli47%

×Draw27%

Bologna26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.95

Napoli

1.38

Bologna

0.95

Napoli creates 45% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 25 away

1.62

creates per match

1.02

0.87

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Napoli

1.62

Bologna

1.02

allows per match

Napoli

0.87

Bologna

1.13

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Napoli+0.09on par

Bologna+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

74%

Napoli or Bologna

73%

Draw or Bologna

53%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

22%

Bologna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

75%

Napoli 2+ goals

40%

Napoli 3+ goals

16%

Bologna 1+ goals

61%

Bologna 2+ goals

25%

Bologna 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

64%

Bologna (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.87 · 41 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.62 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bologna attack 1.02 + Napoli defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Napoli scores more

47%

level

27%

Bologna scores more

26%

Napoli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

L. Insigne

Napoli · M

8.5

Match Events

8'

L. Insigne↳ P. Zieliński

22'

E. Hysaj← F. Ghoulam

52'

Kalidou Koulibaly

53'

V. Osimhen← D. Mertens

58'

N. Domínguez← A. Poli

65'

M. Barrow← N. Sansone

65'

V. Osimhen↳ P. Zieliński

73'

R. Soriano↳ A. Olsen

76'

R. Orsolini← A. Olsen

76'

G. Medel← I. Mbaye

76'

E. Vignato← M. Svanberg

76'

L. Insigne

79'

Mário Rui← P. Zieliński

79'

E. Elmas← L. Insigne

84'

Mário Rui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliBologna

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots16

6Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots16

7On Target4

4Off Target8

3Blocked4

5Inside Box6

9Outside Box10

Passing

43%Possession57%

412Total Passes522

319Accurate Passes417

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1