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Napoli vs Barcelona — UEFA Champions League 2026

Napoli
Napoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barcelona
Barcelona
2/25/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 8th FinalsStadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Napoli47%
×Draw23%
Barcelona30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.81
Barcelona
1.41

Napoli creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Napoli
2.03
Barcelona
1.60

allows per match

Napoli
1.22
Barcelona
1.59

finishing

Napoli-0.36scores less
Barcelona+0.40scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Barcelona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
70%
Napoli or Barcelona
77%
Draw or Barcelona
53%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
26%
Barcelona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
84%
Napoli 2+ goals
54%
Napoli 3+ goals
27%
Barcelona 1+ goals
76%
Barcelona 2+ goals
41%
Barcelona 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
61%
Barcelona (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Barcelona away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.03 + Barcelona defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Barcelona attack 1.60 + Napoli defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Napoli scores more
47%
level
23%
Barcelona scores more
30%

Napoli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Napoli 1–1 Barcelona

Napoli and Barcelona drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on February 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio San Paolo in Napoli.