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Napoli vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Napoli
Napoli
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
AC Milan
AC Milan
4/2/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 28Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Napoli39%
×Draw26%
AC Milan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.36
AC Milan
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.56
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Napoli
0.97
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Napoli+0.16scores more
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
65%
Napoli or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
61%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
18%
AC Milan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
74%
Napoli 2+ goals
39%
Napoli 3+ goals
16%
AC Milan 1+ goals
72%
AC Milan 2+ goals
36%
AC Milan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
53%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.56 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Napoli defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Napoli scores more
39%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
35%

Napoli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Napoli vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Napoli 4-0 in Serie A on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.