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Napoli vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Napoli
Napoli
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AC Milan
AC Milan
8/25/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 2Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Napoli43%
×Draw26%
AC Milan31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.43
AC Milan
1.19

Napoli creates 20% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.62
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Napoli
0.87
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Napoli+0.09on par
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
69%
Napoli or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
57%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
20%
AC Milan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
76%
Napoli 2+ goals
42%
Napoli 3+ goals
17%
AC Milan 1+ goals
70%
AC Milan 2+ goals
33%
AC Milan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
58%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.87 · 41 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.62 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Napoli defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Napoli scores more
43%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
31%

Napoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Napoli 3–2 AC Milan

Napoli beat AC Milan 3-2 in Serie A on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio San Paolo in Naples.