Napoli U19 1–3 Pescara U19: Result & Stats

Napoli U19

FT

1 – 3

Pescara U19

P. Marranzino 2'

V. Blanuta 45+2', 5'

M. Delle Monache 32'

9/27/2021

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Napoli U1953%

×Draw22%

Pescara U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Napoli U19Expected goals in this matchPescara U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.31

Napoli U19

1.98

Pescara U19

1.31

Napoli U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

1.63

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Napoli U19

1.26

Pescara U19

1.00

allows per match

Napoli U19

1.63

Pescara U19

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli U19+0.00on par

Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Napoli U19 or draw

75%

Napoli U19 or Pescara U19

78%

Draw or Pescara U19

47%

Winning margin

Napoli U19 wins by 2+

31%

Pescara U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Napoli U19 1+ goals

86%

Napoli U19 2+ goals

59%

Napoli U19 3+ goals

31%

Pescara U19 1+ goals

73%

Pescara U19 2+ goals

38%

Pescara U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Napoli U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Pescara U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli U19 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli U19 attack 1.26 + Pescara U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Pescara U19 attack 1.00 + Napoli U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Napoli U19 scores more

53%

level

22%

Pescara U19 scores more

25%

Napoli U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Napoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

P. Marranzino

5'

V. Blanuta

26'

D. Costanzo

32'

M. Delle Monache

45+2'

V. Blanuta

46'

D. Costanzo← M. Marchisano

60'

A. Cioffi← A. Cioffi

67'

M. Mane

70'

A. Pesce← A. Pesce

70'

M. Dagasso← M. Dagasso

74'

C. Saco

74'

F. De Marco← F. De Marco

74'

A. Zanoli← D. Di Dona

77'

P. S. Thiamn← P. S. Thiamn

79'

D. Mehic

88'

A. Calio← A. Calio

88'

V. Blanuta← T. Stampella

90+5'

D. Hysaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff