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Namyangju vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K4 League 2026

Namyangju
Namyangju
Preview
08:00
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
9/13/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 22
48%
Namyangju
model favours
48%25%26%
1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Namyangju48%
×Draw25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namyangju
1.56
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.08

Namyangju creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Namyangju
1.30
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Namyangju
1.00
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.83

finishing

Namyangju+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namyangju ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Namyangju or draw
74%
Namyangju or Pyeongtaek Citizen
75%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
52%

Winning margin

Namyangju wins by 2+
25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Namyangju 1+ goals
79%
Namyangju 2+ goals
46%
Namyangju 3+ goals
21%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
66%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
29%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Namyangju (draw refunded)
65%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namyangju at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namyangju attack 1.30 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Namyangju defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Namyangju scores more
48%
level
25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
26%

Namyangju at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Namyangju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Namyangju
LWWDL
Citizen
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Namyangju host Pyeongtaek Citizen

September 13, 2026: Namyangju take on Pyeongtaek Citizen in K4 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.