Namdhari 1–0 Real Kashmir: Result & Stats

Namdhari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Kashmir

11/11/2023

I-League · Round 4Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Namdhari35%

×Draw27%

Real Kashmir39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamdhariExpected goals in this matchReal Kashmir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

Namdhari

1.23

Real Kashmir

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

1.32

creates per match

1.12

1.50

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Namdhari

1.32

Real Kashmir

1.12

allows per match

Namdhari

1.50

Real Kashmir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

Real Kashmir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw

61%

Namdhari or Real Kashmir

73%

Draw or Real Kashmir

65%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+

15%

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals

71%

Namdhari 2+ goals

35%

Namdhari 3+ goals

13%

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

73%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

38%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)

47%

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Namdhari scores more

35%

level

27%

Real Kashmir scores more

39%

Real Kashmir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namdhari vs Real Kashmir

Namdhari beat Real Kashmir 1-0 in I-League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.

Namdhari vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Namdhari vs Real Kashmir