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Nakumatt vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
0 – 0
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
4/8/2017FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 4Afraha Stadium (Nakuru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Nakumatt28%
×Draw25%
Sony Sugar47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.17
Sony Sugar
1.57

Sony Sugar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 49 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.43
Sony Sugar
0.94

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.20
Sony Sugar
0.90

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
53%
Nakumatt or Sony Sugar
75%
Draw or Sony Sugar
72%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
11%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
69%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
33%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
11%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
79%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
46%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
38%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Sony Sugar defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sony Sugar attack 0.94 + Nakumatt defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nakumatt scores more
28%
level
25%
Sony Sugar scores more
47%

Sony Sugar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nakumatt 0–0 Sony Sugar

Nakumatt and Sony Sugar drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on April 8, 2017.

The match was played at Afraha Stadium (Nakuru).