Nakhon Si Thammarat 0–1 Chiangmai United

Nakhon Si Thammarat

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chiangmai United

4/30/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 34Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat48%

×Draw25%

Chiangmai United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchChiangmai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.13

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.59

Chiangmai United

1.13

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 103 away

1.80

creates per match

1.19

1.06

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.80

Chiangmai United

1.19

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.06

Chiangmai United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Chiangmai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

73%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Chiangmai United

75%

Draw or Chiangmai United

52%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

25%

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

80%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

47%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

21%

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

68%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

31%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

64%

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Chiangmai United away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Chiangmai United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chiangmai United attack 1.19 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

48%

level

25%

Chiangmai United scores more

27%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Chiangmai United

Chiangmai United beat Nakhon Si Thammarat 1-0 in Thai League 2 on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium in Nakhon Si Thammarat.

Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Chiangmai United — Thai League 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Chiangmai United