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Nakhon Pathom vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
FT
4 – 3
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
11/29/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 15Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nakhon Pathom52%
×Draw24%
Udon Thani24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Pathom
1.70
Udon Thani
1.09

Nakhon Pathom creates 56% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 82 away

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.46
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.04
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw
76%
Nakhon Pathom or Udon Thani
76%
Draw or Udon Thani
48%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
28%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
82%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
51%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
24%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
66%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
30%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
68%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.70

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more
52%
level
24%
Udon Thani scores more
24%

Nakhon Pathom at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakhon Pathom vs Udon Thani

Nakhon Pathom beat Udon Thani 4-3 in Thai League 2 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Nakhon Pathom.