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Nakhon Pathom vs Chainat — FA Cup 2018

Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chainat
Chainat
9/30/2020FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nakhon Pathom84%
×Draw11%
Chainat6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Pathom
3.19
Chainat
0.75

Nakhon Pathom creates 325% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom
3.63
Chainat
0.75

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom
0.75
Chainat
2.75

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw
94%
Nakhon Pathom or Chainat
89%
Draw or Chainat
16%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
66%
Chainat wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
96%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
82%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
60%
Chainat 1+ goals
53%
Chainat 2+ goals
17%
Chainat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
94%
Chainat (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Chainat away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 3.63 + Chainat defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.19

Chainat attack 0.75 + Nakhon Pathom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more
84%
level
11%
Chainat scores more
6%

Nakhon Pathom at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Nakhon Pathom 2–2 Chainat

Nakhon Pathom and Chainat drew 2-2 in FA Cup on September 30, 2020.