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Nagoya Grampus vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
Preview
10:00
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
6/6/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 38Toyota Stadium
45%
Nagoya Grampus
model favours
45%28%27%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nagoya Grampus45%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.33
Tokyo Verdy
0.95

Nagoya Grampus creates 40% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 46 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.35
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.05
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
73%
Nagoya Grampus or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
55%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
21%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
74%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
38%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
15%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
61%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
25%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
63%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.35 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
45%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
27%

Nagoya Grampus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 92% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nagoya Grampus score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Nagoya Grampus
Balanced
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
50%Possession47%
77%Pass accuracy76%
12.1Shots10.2
1.59xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Nagoya GrampusTokyo Verdy

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Nagoya Grampus
1
Draws
2
Tokyo Verdy
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 25%
0–01–21–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grampus
DDLLW
Verdy
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nagoya Grampus vs Tokyo Verdy — Match Preview

Nagoya Grampus face Tokyo Verdy on June 6, 2027 in this J1 League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Nagoya Grampus host Tokyo Verdy at Toyota Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.