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Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
Preview
09:00
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
9/6/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 6Toyota Stadium
Big match
37%
Nagoya Grampus
model favours
37%26%36%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Nagoya Grampus37%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.31
Machida Zelvia
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.51
Machida Zelvia
1.34

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.25
Machida Zelvia
1.11

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par
Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
64%
Nagoya Grampus or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
63%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
17%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
73%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
38%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
14%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
37%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
51%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.51 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
37%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
36%

Nagoya Grampus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 92% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nagoya Grampus score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Nagoya Grampus 3 vs Machida Zelvia 3
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Nagoya Grampus
Balanced
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
50%PossessionBiggest gap45%
77%Pass accuracy78%
12.1Shots12.9
1.59xG1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Nagoya GrampusMachida Zelvia

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

0
Nagoya Grampus
2
Draws
4
Machida Zelvia
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%
0–02–21–31–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grampus
DDLLW
Zelvia
DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nagoya Grampus face Machida Zelvia (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Nagoya Grampus hosting Machida Zelvia. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nagoya Grampus host Machida Zelvia at Toyota Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.