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Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
3/2/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Nagoya Grampus37%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.31
Machida Zelvia
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.51
Machida Zelvia
1.34

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.25
Machida Zelvia
1.11

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par
Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
64%
Nagoya Grampus or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
63%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
17%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
73%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
38%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
14%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
37%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
51%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.51 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
37%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
36%

Nagoya Grampus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia beat Nagoya Grampus 1-0 in J1 League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota.