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Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
K. Nagai 82'
K. Mikuni 65'
Léo Ceará 67'
4/21/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 9Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Nagoya Grampus42%
×Draw24%
Cerezo Osaka34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.58
Cerezo Osaka
1.39

Nagoya Grampus creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.36
Cerezo Osaka
1.47

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.31
Cerezo Osaka
1.81

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Cerezo Osaka+0.01on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
66%
Nagoya Grampus or Cerezo Osaka
76%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
58%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
21%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
79%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
47%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
21%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
75%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
40%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
56%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.36 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.47 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
42%
level
24%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
34%

Nagoya Grampus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
Lucas FernandesCerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka · F
8.3

Match Events

23'
Haruki Yoshida
27'
A. Kawazura← H. Yoshida
46'
K. Nakayama← R. Yamanaka
62'
Kennedy Mikuni
62'
S. Kagawa← H. Okuno
63'
Vitor Bueno← M. Shibayama
65'
K. Mikuni
67'
Léo Ceará↳ Lucas Fernandes
68'
Patric← T. Uchida
68'
K. Shiihashi← T. Yonemoto
78'
Capixaba
81'
H. Yamada← Capixaba
82'
K. Nagai↳ T. Morishima
85'
Y. Nogami← K. Nagai
87'
Chang-rae Ha
90+3'
Tsukasa Morishima

Possession

34%Nagoya

Shots

6Nagoya

Pass accuracy

46%Nagoya

Statistics

NagoyaCerezo
Overview
34%Possession66%
6Total Shots15
1.17Expected Goals (xG)1.72
3Corners10
17Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots15
4On Target3
0Off Target10
2Blocked2
5Inside Box9
1Outside Box6
Passing
34%Possession66%
299Total Passes570
212Accurate Passes482
71%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls8
4Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Cerezo Osaka

Nagoya Grampus beat Cerezo Osaka 2-1 in J1 League on April 21, 2024.

Goals: K. Mikuni (65'), Léo Ceará (67'), K. Nagai (82').

Cerezo Osaka controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota.