Naftëtari Kuçovë 3–0 Gramozi Ersekë: Result & Stats

Naftëtari Kuçovë

FT

3 – 0

Gramozi Ersekë

11/3/2019

League #513 · Group B - 6Stadiumi Bashkim Sulejmani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Naftëtari Kuçovë67%

×Draw19%

Gramozi Ersekë14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naftëtari KuçovëExpected goals in this matchGramozi Ersekë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.89

Naftëtari Kuçovë

2.21

Gramozi Ersekë

0.89

Naftëtari Kuçovë creates 148% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.10

creates per match

0.67

1.10

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Naftëtari Kuçovë

2.10

Gramozi Ersekë

0.67

allows per match

Naftëtari Kuçovë

1.10

Gramozi Ersekë

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naftëtari Kuçovë+0.00on par

Gramozi Ersekë+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftëtari Kuçovë ↓

Gramozi Ersekë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Naftëtari Kuçovë or draw

86%

Naftëtari Kuçovë or Gramozi Ersekë

81%

Draw or Gramozi Ersekë

33%

Winning margin

Naftëtari Kuçovë wins by 2+

43%

Gramozi Ersekë wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Naftëtari Kuçovë 1+ goals

89%

Naftëtari Kuçovë 2+ goals

65%

Naftëtari Kuçovë 3+ goals

38%

Gramozi Ersekë 1+ goals

59%

Gramozi Ersekë 2+ goals

22%

Gramozi Ersekë 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Naftëtari Kuçovë (draw refunded)

83%

Gramozi Ersekë (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftëtari Kuçovë at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Gramozi Ersekë away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftëtari Kuçovë attack 2.10 + Gramozi Ersekë defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Gramozi Ersekë attack 0.67 + Naftëtari Kuçovë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Naftëtari Kuçovë scores more

67%

level

19%

Gramozi Ersekë scores more

14%

Naftëtari Kuçovë at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Naftëtari Kuçovë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff