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Naftan vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

Naftan
Naftan
Preview
16:00
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
11/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Atlant Stadium
Big match
59%
ML Vitebsk
model favours
19%23%59%

Naftan score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Naftan19%
×Draw23%
ML Vitebsk59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftan
0.91
ML Vitebsk
1.82

ML Vitebsk creates 100% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 24 away

creates per match

Naftan
1.06
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

Naftan
1.72
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Naftan or draw
41%
Naftan or ML Vitebsk
77%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
81%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+
6%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals
60%
Naftan 2+ goals
23%
Naftan 3+ goals
6%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
84%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
54%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)
24%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.06 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Naftan defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Naftan scores more
19%
level
23%
ML Vitebsk scores more
59%

ML Vitebsk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Naftan win just 6% against the top half (vs 31% against the bottom)
  • Naftan sit 16, ML Vitebsk 2 in the table
  • 36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Naftan
LLWLL
Vitebsk
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Naftan face ML Vitebsk (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Naftan hosting ML Vitebsk. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Naftan host ML Vitebsk at Atlant Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.