Naftan 2–3 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Naftan

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

ML Vitebsk

10/2/2022

1. Division · Round 20Stadyen Atlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Naftan32%

×Draw23%

ML Vitebsk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftanExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.80

Naftan

1.50

ML Vitebsk

1.80

ML Vitebsk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

1.60

creates per match

2.36

1.24

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Naftan

1.60

ML Vitebsk

2.36

allows per match

Naftan

1.24

ML Vitebsk

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Naftan or draw

55%

Naftan or ML Vitebsk

77%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

68%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+

15%

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals

78%

Naftan 2+ goals

44%

Naftan 3+ goals

19%

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

83%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

54%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)

42%

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.60 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Naftan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Naftan scores more

32%

level

23%

ML Vitebsk scores more

45%

ML Vitebsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff