Naftagas 3–0 Omladinac NB: Result & Stats

Naftagas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Omladinac NB

11/11/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion FK Naftagas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Naftagas50%

×Draw26%

Omladinac NB24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftagasExpected goals in this matchOmladinac NB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.96

Naftagas

1.51

Omladinac NB

0.96

Naftagas creates 57% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 103 away

1.92

creates per match

1.09

0.83

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Naftagas

1.92

Omladinac NB

1.09

allows per match

Naftagas

0.83

Omladinac NB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naftagas+0.00on par

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftagas ↓

Omladinac NB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Naftagas or draw

76%

Naftagas or Omladinac NB

74%

Draw or Omladinac NB

50%

Winning margin

Naftagas wins by 2+

25%

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Naftagas 1+ goals

78%

Naftagas 2+ goals

44%

Naftagas 3+ goals

19%

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

62%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

25%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Naftagas (draw refunded)

68%

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftagas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 59 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftagas attack 1.92 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.51

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Naftagas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Naftagas scores more

50%

level

26%

Omladinac NB scores more

24%

Naftagas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Naftagas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff