Nafta 4–1 Rogaška: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Nafta

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rogaška

G. Bolla 90'

J. Bizjak 46', 17'

R. Paku 34'

F. Jauk 51'

9/21/2019

2. SNL · Round 9Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nafta55%

×Draw22%

Rogaška23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftaExpected goals in this matchRogaška

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.17

Nafta

1.94

Rogaška

1.17

Nafta creates 66% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 41 away

2.24

creates per match

1.32

1.02

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Nafta

2.24

Rogaška

1.32

allows per match

Nafta

1.02

Rogaška

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par

Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Rogaška →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nafta or draw

77%

Nafta or Rogaška

78%

Draw or Rogaška

45%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+

32%

Rogaška wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals

86%

Nafta 2+ goals

58%

Nafta 3+ goals

30%

Rogaška 1+ goals

69%

Rogaška 2+ goals

33%

Rogaška 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)

71%

Rogaška (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.24 + Rogaška defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rogaška attack 1.32 + Nafta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nafta scores more

55%

level

22%

Rogaška scores more

23%

Nafta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Bizjak

34'

R. Paku

46'

H. Muzaferović← M. Panadić

46'

J. Bizjak

51'

F. Jauk

62'

D. Drk← S. Oštrek

69'

D. Szökrönyös← V. Vinko

72'

J. Koprivica← E. Hustić

79'

G. Kamarás← M. Rebernik

86'

M. Krsnik← S. Antonić

90'

G. Bolla

Nafta

Rogaška

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: A. Stegne

62'▲D. Drk←▼S. Oštrek

69'▲D. Szökrönyös←▼V. Vinko

79'▲G. Kamarás←▼M. Rebernik

Nafta substitutes

DrkSzökrönyösKamarásPlojCigutPirtovšekŽivko

Manager: D. Romih

46'▲H. Muzaferović←▼M. Panadić

72'▲J. Koprivica←▼E. Hustić

86'▲M. Krsnik←▼S. Antonić

Rogaška substitutes

MuzaferovićKoprivicaKrsnikMrazStaričZorkoGorza