Nafta 3–1 Brežice: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Nafta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brežice

V. Vinko 80'

S. Oštrek 50'

A. Ploj 37'

M. Ferić 90+5'

7/27/2019

2. SNL · Round 1Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nafta63%

×Draw21%

Brežice17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftaExpected goals in this matchBrežice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.94

Nafta

2.05

Brežice

0.94

Nafta creates 118% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

2.24

creates per match

0.86

1.02

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Nafta

2.24

Brežice

0.86

allows per match

Nafta

1.02

Brežice

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par

Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Brežice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nafta or draw

83%

Nafta or Brežice

79%

Draw or Brežice

37%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+

39%

Brežice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals

87%

Nafta 2+ goals

61%

Nafta 3+ goals

33%

Brežice 1+ goals

61%

Brežice 2+ goals

24%

Brežice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)

79%

Brežice (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.24 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.05

Brežice attack 0.86 + Nafta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nafta scores more

63%

level

21%

Brežice scores more

17%

Nafta at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

A. Ploj

50'

S. Oštrek

62'

M. Ferić← P. Turković

63'

M. Komljenović← D. Božič

73'

D. Drk← D. Szökrönyös

73'

T. Pirtovšek← A. Zagorec

75'

80'

82'

90+5'

Nafta

Brežice

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Vinko

⚽

Ploj

Manager: A. Stegne

73'▲D. Drk←▼D. Szökrönyös

73'▲T. Pirtovšek←▼A. Zagorec

82'▲Z. Tóth←▼V. Vinko

Nafta substitutes

DrkPirtovšekTóthPirtovšekCigutBollaŽalik

Manager: V. Butorac

62'▲M. Ferić←▼P. Turković

63'▲M. Komljenović←▼D. Božič

75'▲J. Hervol←▼L. Filip

Brežice substitutes

FerićKomljenovićHervolAšičLokarMirkac