Nafta 4–1 Bilje: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Nafta

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bilje

L. Magdič 84'

N. Haljeta 54'

D. Drk 36'

E. Burai 17'

N. Jermol 38'

3/25/2022

2. SNL · Round 22Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Nafta58%

×Draw21%

Bilje21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftaExpected goals in this matchBilje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.13

Nafta

2.04

Bilje

1.13

Nafta creates 81% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 95 away

2.24

creates per match

1.24

1.02

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Nafta

2.24

Bilje

1.24

allows per match

Nafta

1.02

Bilje

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nafta+0.00on par

Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nafta ↓

Bilje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nafta or draw

79%

Nafta or Bilje

79%

Draw or Bilje

42%

Winning margin

Nafta wins by 2+

35%

Bilje wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nafta 1+ goals

87%

Nafta 2+ goals

60%

Nafta 3+ goals

33%

Bilje 1+ goals

68%

Bilje 2+ goals

31%

Bilje 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nafta (draw refunded)

74%

Bilje (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nafta at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nafta attack 2.24 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bilje attack 1.24 + Nafta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nafta scores more

58%

level

21%

Bilje scores more

21%

Nafta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

36'

38'

54'

61'

D. Zana← M. Čuček Bezjak

69'

D. Fekete← E. Burai

71'

G. Terziev← N. Doplihar

82'

L. Magdič← D. Drk

84'

L. Batič← T. Pantelić

84'

L. Magdič

Nafta

Bilje

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Drk

Vinko

⚽

Haljeta

⚽

▼

Burai

Manager: G. Boér

61'▲D. Zana←▼M. Čuček Bezjak

69'▲D. Fekete←▼E. Burai

82'▲L. Magdič←▼D. Drk

Nafta substitutes

ZanaFeketeMagdičCotman

Manager: D. Beršnjak

71'▲G. Terziev←▼N. Doplihar

84'▲L. Batič←▼T. Pantelić

Bilje substitutes

TerzievBatičNabergojBeršnjakSever

2. SNL: Nafta 4–1 Bilje

Nafta beat Bilje 4-1 in 2. SNL on March 25, 2022.

Goals: E. Burai (17'), D. Drk (36'), N. Jermol (38'), N. Haljeta (54'), L. Magdič (84').

The match was played at Športni park Lendava in Lendava.

Nafta vs Bilje — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Nafta 4–1 Bilje