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Naft vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2020

Naft
Naft
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
11/6/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Naft43%
×Draw29%
Baghdad28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft
1.22
Baghdad
0.91

Naft creates 34% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 78 away

creates per match

Naft
0.98
Baghdad
0.91

allows per match

Naft
0.90
Baghdad
1.46

finishing

Naft+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw
72%
Naft or Baghdad
71%
Draw or Baghdad
57%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+
19%
Baghdad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals
70%
Naft 2+ goals
34%
Naft 3+ goals
12%
Baghdad 1+ goals
60%
Baghdad 2+ goals
23%
Baghdad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)
61%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Baghdad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.22

Baghdad attack 0.91 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft scores more
43%
level
29%
Baghdad scores more
28%

Naft at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft 0–1 Baghdad

Baghdad beat Naft 1-0 in Iraqi League on November 6, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.