Naft 1–4 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Naft

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

7/5/2021

Iraqi League · Round 35Al Taji Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Naft28%

×Draw30%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaftExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.15

Naft

0.89

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.15

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 29% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

0.98

creates per match

1.39

0.90

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Naft

0.98

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.39

allows per match

Naft

0.90

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Naft or draw

58%

Naft or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

70%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

72%

Winning margin

Naft wins by 2+

10%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Naft 1+ goals

59%

Naft 2+ goals

22%

Naft 3+ goals

6%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

68%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

32%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Naft (draw refunded)

40%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft attack 0.98 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.39 + Naft defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft scores more

28%

level

30%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

42%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff