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Naft Maysan vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
3/16/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 24Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Naft Maysan33%
×Draw30%
Al Najaf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.02
Al Najaf
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 112 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.04
Al Najaf
0.97

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.19
Al Najaf
1.00

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
63%
Naft Maysan or Al Najaf
70%
Draw or Al Najaf
67%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
13%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
64%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
27%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
8%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
66%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
29%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
48%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.04 + Al Najaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Najaf attack 0.97 + Naft Maysan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
33%
level
30%
Al Najaf scores more
37%

Al Najaf at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Maysan 1–2 Al Najaf

Al Najaf beat Naft Maysan 2-1 in Iraqi League on March 16, 2021.

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.