Naft Masjed Soleyman 0–0 Foolad FC: Result & Stats

Naft Masjed Soleyman

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Foolad FC

8/10/2018

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 3Behnam Mohammadi Stadium (Masjed Soleyman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman34%

×Draw31%

Foolad FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft Masjed SoleymanExpected goals in this matchFoolad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.98

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.96

Foolad FC

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 116 away

0.85

creates per match

0.84

1.13

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.85

Foolad FC

0.84

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.13

Foolad FC

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Foolad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw

65%

Naft Masjed Soleyman or Foolad FC

69%

Draw or Foolad FC

66%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

12%

Foolad FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

62%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

25%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

7%

Foolad FC 1+ goals

62%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

26%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

49%

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

34%

level

31%

Foolad FC scores more

35%

Foolad FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff