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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
10/6/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Behnam Mohammadi Stadium (Masjed Soleyman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman24%
×Draw30%
Esteghlal FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.80
Esteghlal FC
1.21

Esteghlal FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 116 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
54%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Esteghlal FC
70%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
76%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
8%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
55%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
19%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
5%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
70%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
34%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
35%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
24%
level
30%
Esteghlal FC scores more
46%

Esteghlal FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium (Masjed Soleyman).