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Naft Gachsaran vs Saipa — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Saipa
Saipa
12/12/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran37%
×Draw35%
Saipa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
0.89
Saipa
0.74

Naft Gachsaran creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Saipa
0.75

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Saipa
0.92

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
72%
Naft Gachsaran or Saipa
65%
Draw or Saipa
63%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
13%
Saipa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
59%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
22%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
6%
Saipa 1+ goals
52%
Saipa 2+ goals
17%
Saipa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
57%
Saipa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Saipa attack 0.75 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
37%
level
35%
Saipa scores more
28%

Naft Gachsaran at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Saipa

Saipa beat Naft Gachsaran 3-2 in Azadegan League on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Naft Gachsaran Stadium in Gachsaran.