Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Naft Al-Wasat vs Naft Al-Janoob — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Al-Wasat
Naft Al-Wasat
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
1/1/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 12Holy Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Naft Al-Wasat39%
×Draw31%
Naft Al-Janoob31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Wasat
1.08
Naft Al-Janoob
0.93

Naft Al-Wasat creates 16% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 93 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Wasat
0.93
Naft Al-Janoob
0.88

allows per match

Naft Al-Wasat
0.97
Naft Al-Janoob
1.24

finishing

Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par
Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Wasat ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Al-Wasat or draw
69%
Naft Al-Wasat or Naft Al-Janoob
69%
Draw or Naft Al-Janoob
61%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+
16%
Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals
66%
Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals
29%
Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals
10%
Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
61%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
24%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)
56%
Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Wasat at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.97 · 74 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.93 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naft Al-Wasat scores more
39%
level
31%
Naft Al-Janoob scores more
31%

Naft Al-Wasat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Naft Al-Wasat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Al-Wasat 2–1 Naft Al-Janoob

Naft Al-Wasat beat Naft Al-Janoob 2-1 in Iraqi League on January 1, 2021.

The match was played at Holy Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.