Naft Al-Janoob 2–3 Naft Al-Wasat: Result & Stats

Naft Al-Janoob

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Naft Al-Wasat

5/17/2021

Iraqi League · Round 31Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Naft Al-Janoob34%

×Draw30%

Naft Al-Wasat36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft Al-JanoobExpected goals in this matchNaft Al-Wasat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.04

Naft Al-Janoob

1.01

Naft Al-Wasat

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 73 away

0.87

creates per match

0.96

1.12

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Naft Al-Janoob

0.87

Naft Al-Wasat

0.96

allows per match

Naft Al-Janoob

1.12

Naft Al-Wasat

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Janoob ↓

Naft Al-Wasat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Naft Al-Janoob or draw

64%

Naft Al-Janoob or Naft Al-Wasat

70%

Draw or Naft Al-Wasat

66%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+

13%

Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals

64%

Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals

27%

Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals

8%

Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals

65%

Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals

28%

Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)

49%

Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Janoob at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Naft Al-Wasat away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.87 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.96 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Naft Al-Janoob scores more

34%

level

30%

Naft Al-Wasat scores more

36%

Naft Al-Wasat at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Naft Al-Wasat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff