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Naestved vs Brabrand — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
Preview
12:00
Brabrand
Brabrand
3/14/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18
43%
Naestved
model favours
43%26%31%

Naestved have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Naestved43%
×Draw26%
Brabrand31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.46
Brabrand
1.20

Naestved creates 22% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 81 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.44
Brabrand
1.06

allows per match

Naestved
1.33
Brabrand
1.48

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Brabrand+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Brabrand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
69%
Naestved or Brabrand
74%
Draw or Brabrand
57%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
21%
Brabrand wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
77%
Naestved 2+ goals
43%
Naestved 3+ goals
18%
Brabrand 1+ goals
70%
Brabrand 2+ goals
34%
Brabrand 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
58%
Brabrand (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Brabrand away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.44 + Brabrand defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Brabrand attack 1.06 + Naestved defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naestved scores more
43%
level
26%
Brabrand scores more
31%

Naestved at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Brabrand win just 20% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Naestved
WLW
Brabrand
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Naestved host Brabrand

March 14, 2027: Naestved take on Brabrand in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.