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Naestved vs Brønshøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
2 – 1
Brønshøj
Brønshøj
8/27/20172nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 4Euro Outlets Stadion Næstved

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Naestved45%
×Draw26%
Brønshøj29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.46
Brønshøj
1.10

Naestved creates 33% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 17 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.45
Brønshøj
0.88

allows per match

Naestved
1.32
Brønshøj
1.47

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Brønshøj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Brønshøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
71%
Naestved or Brønshøj
74%
Draw or Brønshøj
55%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
22%
Brønshøj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
77%
Naestved 2+ goals
43%
Naestved 3+ goals
18%
Brønshøj 1+ goals
67%
Brønshøj 2+ goals
30%
Brønshøj 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
61%
Brønshøj (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

Brønshøj away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.45 + Brønshøj defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Brønshøj attack 0.88 + Naestved defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Naestved scores more
45%
level
26%
Brønshøj scores more
29%

Naestved at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naestved vs Brønshøj

Naestved beat Brønshøj 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 27, 2017.

The match was played at Euro Outlets Stadion Næstved in Næstved.