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Naestved vs B 93 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
Preview
17:00
B 93
B 93
10/16/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12
Big match
41%
B 93
model favours
34%25%41%
1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Naestved34%
×Draw25%
B 9341%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.35
B 93
1.52

B 93 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 48 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.44
B 93
1.71

allows per match

Naestved
1.33
B 93
1.27

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
59%
Naestved or B 93
75%
Draw or B 93
66%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
15%
B 93 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
74%
Naestved 2+ goals
39%
Naestved 3+ goals
15%
B 93 1+ goals
78%
B 93 2+ goals
45%
B 93 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
45%
B 93 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.44 + B 93 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

B 93 attack 1.71 + Naestved defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naestved scores more
34%
level
25%
B 93 scores more
41%

B 93 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "B 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Naestved
WLW
93
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Naestved vs B 93 — Match Preview

Naestved face B 93 on October 16, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.