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Nacional vs RCA — Division di Honor 2019

Nacional
Nacional
FT
1 – 6
RCA
RCA
12/16/2023Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 9Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nacional39%
×Draw21%
RCA41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
2.03
RCA
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 68 away

creates per match

Nacional
3.10
RCA
2.50

allows per match

Nacional
1.65
RCA
0.96

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par
RCA+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

RCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
59%
Nacional or RCA
79%
Draw or RCA
61%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
21%
RCA wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
87%
Nacional 2+ goals
60%
Nacional 3+ goals
33%
RCA 1+ goals
87%
RCA 2+ goals
61%
RCA 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
49%
RCA (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

RCA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.96 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 3.10 + RCA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 2.03

RCA attack 2.50 + Nacional defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nacional scores more
39%
level
21%
RCA scores more
41%

RCA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional vs RCA

RCA beat Nacional 6-1 in Division di Honor on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.