Nacional 3–1 Leixoes: Result & Stats

Nacional

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leixoes

12/23/2020

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional31%

×Draw23%

Leixoes46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NacionalExpected goals in this matchLeixoes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.85

Nacional

1.50

Leixoes

1.85

Leixoes creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

2.20

creates per match

2.30

1.40

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Nacional

2.20

Leixoes

2.30

allows per match

Nacional

1.40

Leixoes

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par

Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Leixoes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nacional or draw

54%

Nacional or Leixoes

77%

Draw or Leixoes

69%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+

15%

Leixoes wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals

78%

Nacional 2+ goals

44%

Nacional 3+ goals

19%

Leixoes 1+ goals

84%

Leixoes 2+ goals

55%

Leixoes 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)

41%

Leixoes (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Leixoes away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 2.20 + Leixoes defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leixoes attack 2.30 + Nacional defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nacional scores more

31%

level

23%

Leixoes scores more

46%

Leixoes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff