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Nacional vs Dakota — Division di Honor 2019

Nacional
Nacional
FT
0 – 4
Dakota
Dakota
2/20/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 11Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nacional33%
×Draw19%
Dakota48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
2.04
Dakota
2.47

Dakota creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

Nacional
3.10
Dakota
3.29

allows per match

Nacional
1.65
Dakota
0.97

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par
Dakota+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Dakota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
52%
Nacional or Dakota
81%
Draw or Dakota
67%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
17%
Dakota wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
87%
Nacional 2+ goals
60%
Nacional 3+ goals
33%
Dakota 1+ goals
91%
Dakota 2+ goals
70%
Dakota 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
41%
Dakota (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

Dakota away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 3.10 + Dakota defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dakota attack 3.29 + Nacional defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nacional scores more
33%
level
19%
Dakota scores more
48%

Dakota at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Nacional 0–4 Dakota

Dakota beat Nacional 4-0 in Division di Honor on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.