Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
3/10/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Nacional Potosí58%
×Draw21%
Independiente Petrolero21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Potosí
2.08
Independiente Petrolero
1.19

Nacional Potosí creates 75% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 91 away

creates per match

Nacional Potosí
2.23
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Nacional Potosí
1.12
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw
79%
Nacional Potosí or Independiente Petrolero
79%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
42%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
35%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
87%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
61%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
34%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
70%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
33%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
73%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.23 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.08

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more
58%
level
21%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
21%

Nacional Potosí at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Nacional Potosí 3–1 Independiente Petrolero

Nacional Potosí beat Independiente Petrolero 3-1 in Primera División on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.