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Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
2/18/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Nacional Asuncion38%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Trinidense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Asuncion
1.28
Sportivo Trinidense
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 44 away

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion
1.22
Sportivo Trinidense
1.39

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion
1.08
Sportivo Trinidense
1.34

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw
65%
Nacional Asuncion or Sportivo Trinidense
73%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
62%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+
17%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals
72%
Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals
37%
Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals
14%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
35%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)
52%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.39 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more
38%
level
27%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
35%

Nacional Asuncion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense

Nacional Asuncion beat Sportivo Trinidense 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Arsenio Erico in Asunción.