Nacional Asuncion 3–1 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Nacional Asuncion

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Rubio NU

L. Villagra 83', 35'

G. Villamayor 5' (OG)

L. Gracián 12'

12/3/2016

Division Profesional - Clausura · Round 20Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional Asuncion57%

×Draw25%

Rubio NU18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.76

Nacional Asuncion

1.59

Rubio NU

0.76

Nacional Asuncion creates 109% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

0.91

0.60

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

2.00

Rubio NU

0.91

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

0.60

Rubio NU

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

82%

Nacional Asuncion or Rubio NU

75%

Draw or Rubio NU

43%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

31%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

80%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

47%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

21%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

53%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

18%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

76%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 2.00 + Rubio NU defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rubio NU attack 0.91 + Nacional Asuncion defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

57%

level

25%

Rubio NU scores more

18%

Nacional Asuncion at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

G. VillamayorOwn goal

12'

L. Gracián

35'

L. Villagra

83'

L. Villagra

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff