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Náchod vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Náchod
Náchod
FT
4 – 1
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
8/10/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 1Sportivní areál Náchod (Náchod)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Náchod70%
×Draw16%
Sparta Kutná Hora14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náchod
2.81
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.22

Náchod creates 130% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 27 away

creates per match

Náchod
1.69
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Náchod
1.36
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Náchod+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náchod ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Náchod or draw
86%
Náchod or Sparta Kutná Hora
84%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
30%

Winning margin

Náchod wins by 2+
49%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Náchod 1+ goals
94%
Náchod 2+ goals
76%
Náchod 3+ goals
52%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
70%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
34%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Náchod (draw refunded)
83%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náchod at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náchod attack 1.69 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.81

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Náchod defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Náchod scores more
70%
level
16%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
14%

Náchod at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Náchod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Náchod vs Sparta Kutná Hora

Náchod beat Sparta Kutná Hora 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Sportivní areál Náchod (Náchod).