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NAC U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

NAC U21
NAC U21
CANC
12:45
Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
10/17/2020U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Round 7Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

NAC U2130%
×Draw21%
Twente / Heracles U2149%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC U21
1.61
Twente / Heracles U21
2.12

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

creates per match

NAC U21
1.19
Twente / Heracles U21
1.82

allows per match

NAC U21
2.41
Twente / Heracles U21
2.03

finishing

NAC U21+0.00on par
Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC U21 ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

NAC U21 or draw
51%
NAC U21 or Twente / Heracles U21
79%
Draw or Twente / Heracles U21
70%

Winning margin

NAC U21 wins by 2+
14%
Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

NAC U21 1+ goals
80%
NAC U21 2+ goals
48%
NAC U21 3+ goals
22%
Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
88%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
62%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

NAC U21 (draw refunded)
37%
Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC U21 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC U21 attack 1.19 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.61

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + NAC U21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NAC U21 scores more
30%
level
21%
Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
49%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NAC U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 — Match Preview

NAC U21 face Twente / Heracles U21 on October 17, 2020 in this U21 Divisie 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

NAC U21 host Twente / Heracles U21 at Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.