NAC U21 0–1 Groningen U21: Result & Stats

NAC U21

FT

0 – 1

Groningen U21

9/26/2020

U21 Divisie 1 · Round 4Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

NAC U2123%

×Draw20%

Groningen U2157%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC U21Expected goals in this matchGroningen U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.28

NAC U21

1.41

Groningen U21

2.28

Groningen U21 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 70 away

1.19

creates per match

2.14

2.41

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

NAC U21

1.19

Groningen U21

2.14

allows per match

NAC U21

2.41

Groningen U21

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC U21+0.00on par

Groningen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC U21 ↓

Groningen U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

NAC U21 or draw

43%

NAC U21 or Groningen U21

80%

Draw or Groningen U21

77%

Winning margin

NAC U21 wins by 2+

10%

Groningen U21 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

NAC U21 1+ goals

76%

NAC U21 2+ goals

41%

NAC U21 3+ goals

17%

Groningen U21 1+ goals

90%

Groningen U21 2+ goals

66%

Groningen U21 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

NAC U21 (draw refunded)

29%

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC U21 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Groningen U21 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC U21 attack 1.19 + Groningen U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Groningen U21 attack 2.14 + NAC U21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

NAC U21 scores more

23%

level

20%

Groningen U21 scores more

57%

Groningen U21 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff