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NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
Preview
19:00
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
1/15/2027Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 22Rat Verlegh Stadion
Big match
52%
NAC Breda
model favours
52%22%26%

Jong PSV U21 score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

NAC Breda52%
×Draw22%
Jong PSV U2126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.93
Jong PSV U21
1.30

NAC Breda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 149 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.80
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.08
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
74%
NAC Breda or Jong PSV U21
78%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
48%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
30%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
85%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
57%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
30%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
73%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
37%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
67%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.80 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.93

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + NAC Breda defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NAC Breda scores more
52%
level
22%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
26%

NAC Breda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • NAC Breda have won 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • NAC Breda win just 31% against the top half (vs 61% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Breda
WLDWL
U21
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 — Match Preview

NAC Breda face Jong PSV U21 on January 15, 2027 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

NAC Breda host Jong PSV U21 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.