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Næsby vs Frem — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Næsby
Næsby
FT
1 – 4
Frem
Frem
M. de Claville Berthelsen 69'
P. Ngongo 79', 10'
M. Andersen 34'
L. Balck 14'
10/24/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Næsby38%
×Draw27%
Frem36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
1.31
Frem
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 53 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.08
Frem
1.06

allows per match

Næsby
1.46
Frem
1.55

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Frem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
64%
Næsby or Frem
73%
Draw or Frem
62%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
17%
Frem wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
73%
Næsby 2+ goals
38%
Næsby 3+ goals
14%
Frem 1+ goals
72%
Frem 2+ goals
36%
Frem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
52%
Frem (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Frem away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.08 + Frem defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Frem attack 1.06 + Næsby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Næsby scores more
38%
level
27%
Frem scores more
36%

Næsby at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
P. Ngongo
14'
L. Balck
34'
M. Andersen
69'
M. de Claville Berthelsen
79'
P. Ngongo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Næsby 1–4 Frem

Frem beat Næsby 4-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 24, 2020.

Goals: P. Ngongo (10', 79'), L. Balck (14'), M. Andersen (34'), M. de Claville Berthelsen (69').

The match was played at ALPI Arena Næsby in Odense.