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Næsby vs Dalum — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Næsby
Næsby
FT
1 – 2
Dalum
Dalum
M. de Claville Berthelsen 73'
P. Petersen 58'
M. Raben 9'
10/31/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Næsby38%
×Draw26%
Dalum36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
1.35
Dalum
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.08
Dalum
1.16

allows per match

Næsby
1.46
Dalum
1.63

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Dalum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
64%
Næsby or Dalum
74%
Draw or Dalum
62%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
17%
Dalum wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
74%
Næsby 2+ goals
39%
Næsby 3+ goals
15%
Dalum 1+ goals
73%
Dalum 2+ goals
38%
Dalum 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
51%
Dalum (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Dalum away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.08 + Dalum defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dalum attack 1.16 + Næsby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Næsby scores more
38%
level
26%
Dalum scores more
36%

Næsby at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Raben
58'
P. Petersen
73'
M. de Claville Berthelsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Næsby vs Dalum

Dalum beat Næsby 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 31, 2020.

Goals: M. Raben (9'), P. Petersen (58'), M. de Claville Berthelsen (73').

The match was played at ALPI Arena Næsby in Odense.