Næsby 2–1 Brabrand: Result & Stats

Næsby

FT

2 – 1

Brabrand

M. Hansen 85'

M. de Claville Berthelsen 62'

K. Andersen 87'

8/29/2020

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Næsby39%

×Draw27%

Brabrand35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NæsbyExpected goals in this matchBrabrand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Næsby

1.31

Brabrand

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 77 away

1.08

creates per match

1.01

1.46

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Næsby

1.08

Brabrand

1.01

allows per match

Næsby

1.46

Brabrand

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par

Brabrand+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Brabrand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Næsby or draw

65%

Næsby or Brabrand

73%

Draw or Brabrand

61%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+

17%

Brabrand wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals

73%

Næsby 2+ goals

38%

Næsby 3+ goals

14%

Brabrand 1+ goals

71%

Brabrand 2+ goals

35%

Brabrand 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)

53%

Brabrand (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Brabrand away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.08 + Brabrand defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Brabrand attack 1.01 + Næsby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Næsby scores more

39%

level

27%

Brabrand scores more

35%

Næsby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

M. de Claville Berthelsen

85'

M. Hansen

87'

K. Andersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff