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MyPa vs PEPO — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

MyPa
MyPa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
PEPO
PEPO
7/21/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 13Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

MyPa44%
×Draw22%
PEPO34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MyPa
1.94
PEPO
1.69

MyPa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 70 away

creates per match

MyPa
2.11
PEPO
1.61

allows per match

MyPa
1.77
PEPO
1.77

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

MyPa or draw
66%
MyPa or PEPO
78%
Draw or PEPO
56%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+
24%
PEPO wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals
86%
MyPa 2+ goals
58%
MyPa 3+ goals
30%
PEPO 1+ goals
82%
PEPO 2+ goals
50%
PEPO 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)
56%
PEPO (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

PEPO away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 2.11 + PEPO defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.94

PEPO attack 1.61 + MyPa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

MyPa scores more
44%
level
22%
PEPO scores more
34%

MyPa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "MyPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MyPa vs PEPO

MyPa beat PEPO 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski).